Skin Rarity Guide
Understand rarities, drop rates, and odds
CS2 Skin Rarity Tiers Explained
CS2 skins are grouped into rarity tiers that affect drop rates, supply, and pricing. Rarity is important, but it does not determine value by itself.
Design popularity, wear condition, pattern, collection, and demand can make lower rarity skins worth more than higher rarity skins.
Rarity Tiers and Drop Rates
| Tier | Color | Approximate drop rate |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Grade | White | 79.92% |
| Industrial Grade | Light Blue | 15.98% |
| Mil-Spec | Blue | 3.2% |
| Restricted | Purple | 0.64% |
| Classified | Pink | 0.128% |
| Covert | Red | 0.0256% |
| Special Items | Gold/Yellow | 0.26% |
Case Drop Odds Calculator
Estimate how many of each rarity you can expect when opening weapon cases. Cases drop Mil-Spec and above at these fixed odds.
- Mil-Spec79.92% · 1 in 179.92
- Restricted15.98% · 1 in 615.98
- Classified3.2% · 1 in 313.20
- Covert0.64% · 1 in 1560.64
- Rare Special (knife / gloves)0.26% · 1 in 3850.26
Estimated cost for 100 cases$250.00
Price Factors Beyond Rarity
Design popularity
Some skins are more desirable because of appearance, color, theme, or craft potential.
Wear condition
Factory New and rare float values often command higher prices.
Pattern
Pattern-based skins can vary dramatically in value across seeds.
Supply and demand
Collection age, case availability, and market demand can override rarity expectations.